Deflation vs. Malinvestment

Reading through an investor's newsletter this morning, I came across snippets that almost contradict each other. I'll explain that. But it's as though some (most) mainstream investors and academicians want to have the cake and eat it too. It's like me going to work, hoping it's not busy, and still making bank; it ain't happening.

This guy says: "Now, there is no exact way to determine the right size of the money supply. It definitely needs to grow each year by at least the growth in the size of the economy, the population, and productivity, or deflation will appear. But if money supply grows too much then you have inflation." [Emphasis mine]

He clearly injects the deflationary bogey, and of course doesn't explain the implications of it, but instead implies that it is clearly and at all times bad and catastrophic, which is emphatically untrue. We'll see why here:

"More than five million homeowners are behind on their mortgages; There are over six million Americans who have been unemployed for at least six months, a record 40% of the ranks of the jobless; The private capital stock is growing at its slowest rate in nearly two decades; Roughly 30% of manufacturing capacity is sitting idle; Nearly 19 million residential housing units, or about 15% of the stock, is vacant; Commercial real estate values are down 30% over the past year; The average American worker has seen his/her level of wealth plunge $100,000 over the last two years, even with the recovery in equity markets this past year; Bank credit is contracting at an unprecedented 15% annual rate so far this year as lenders sit on a record $1.3 trillion of cash" [Emphasis mine]

I've highlighted the words and phrases that are ubiquitous in any recession that the Fed (or any central bank) has presided over, those being 'unemployed, low stock growth rate, idle capacity, vacancies, decreased values, decreased wealth, decreased credit.'

I have studied under the school which says that if you fear deflation, and combat it with low interest rates and artificial injections of liquidity in the market, you're going to get all of the bad things associated with bad investments, namely, idle stock, underemployment, and lower asset values. You cannot avoid the former without encountering the latter.

Deflation is not bad per se (Ask the 1880s). There is no reason to believe that long-term deflation is anymore pernicious than long-term inflation. I've simplified it, but succinctly put, expectations matter. More on that here.